The next phase of a Covid-19 Pandemic

There will come a time, perhaps this Spring or next Winter, when the number of cases will overwhelm the current system of containment, quarantine and contact tracing. The next step - in addition to finding and isolating the potentially infected - is changing society, and our individual behaviors, so that each infected person infects - on average - less than one new person. The epidemic will die out when we do this.

This is what China is doing today with significant success.

Without protective gear (such as masks) and changes in behavior, one person with Covid-19 will infect between 2.0 and 2.5 people in Chinese society. (Different societies have slightly different contagion rates (known as R0 )). Reduce contagion by over 60%, to an R0 to less than 1.0, and the epidemic dies out.

Individually, LOTS of hand washing and training to NOT touch your eyes, nose and mouth. Alcohol wipes on things you touch (cell phones !!) and touch them differently (elevator buttons with your knuckle, tissue when using an electronic pen or keypad to pay, pumping gas).  Shop less and keep your distance. Avoid crowds. Wear a mask (plus perhaps goggles & gloves) when outside your home. Prepare to care for a sick family member at home without becoming infected yourself. Stockpile stuff NOW.

Socially, close schools, end sporting events, conventions and festivals. Reduce public transportation where possible, end most tourism.

More later.

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