Covid-19 and Age

I reviewed the Chinese CDC paper on Covid demographics. 

 The most striking observation is the effects of age on Covid infection and mortality:

1) The younger you are, the less likely you are to get sick with Covid. Ages 0 to 19 were just 2.1% of the cases (even there, 10-19 had 32% more cases than 0-9).

2) Among those infected, the death rate climbed dramatically with age. 0-19 had 2.1% of infections but only one death out of 923 (2.1% of 923 is 19.4 so mortality in sick children is @ 5% of average mortality based on just a single death).

Looking at the Chinese age pyramid, 0-19 is about 23% of the population.

So, roughly, children get sick @ 1/11th as much as average. If sick, children die @ 1/20th as much (inferring from just one death)

This youth effect is still strong at 20-29. @ 12% of population, 8.1% of cases and 7 of 923 deaths.

In my age group (of particular interest to me) ages 60-69, 9.4% of Chinese population with 19.2% of cases and 30.2% of deaths. Those even older have far fewer cases (just fewer people) - 70-79 had 45% as many cases as 60-69, but the number of deaths are almost exactly the same for ages 60-69 and for 70-79. Those aged 80+ are just 3.2% of cases and 20.3% of deaths.

So the older you are, the greater your chance of getting sick. And if you do get sick, the greater your chance of dying.

This is a strong incentive for middle aged and older people to avoid exposure once the virus becomes established in the USA.

3/4/20 Update: All 79 dead from Covid in Italy (as of this date) are between ages 63 and 95. This is a relevant example of selective mortality in a Western medical system.

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